With political upheaval in France and uncertainty in Greece following 6 May elections, many commentators said Serbia’s polls that day stood out for being orderly and unsurprising. The Economist called the country an “island of calm” in a tumultuous Europe. In a pre-election piece, the Financial Times suggested that Serbian politics have pacified after years of division.
There were, in fact, few surprises. The Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) of Tomislav Nikolic narrowly won the parliamentary election, followed by President Tadic’s Democratic Party (DS) and the Socialist Party, which doubled its parliamentary seats in the only real surprise of the day. Tadic edged out Nikolic in the presidential poll, and they go into a second round run-off 20 May.
But the polls created a false sense of tranquility. That’s partly because they so closely followed Serbia winning EU candidate status in March. The proximity explains why Tadic did so well despite 25 percent unemployment and why the campaigning was less divisive than in years past, as the major parties support EU membership, at least rhetorically.
If anything, the election was the calm before the storm. Despite narrowly winning 6 May, Nikolic’s SNS could be shut out of the government because of a coalition deal announced between Tadic’s DS and the Socialists last week. Nikolic has alleged massive electoral fraud – though without providing evidence – and is threatening to mobilize demonstrations, presumably if he loses Sunday’s run-off.
That seems likely, as Tadic is polling well in front. And even if Nikolic can’t orchestrate mass protests, the eventual new government faces serious challenges ahead.
Public discontent over a lengthy economic crisis, unemployment and corruption is mounting. We see some evidence of this in the Socialists’ gains 6 May. But there was also a surprisingly strong general protest vote. Five percent of the cast ballots were so-called “white votes” that had been purposefully destroyed.
The new government will also face EU pressure to continue accession reforms and the politically touchy “dialogue” with Pristina that began in March 2011. Officially, the negotiations concern technical issues like customs. But European leaders have signaled that they view progress in the talks as Belgrade making major concessions to Pristina. This includes dismantling its “parallel” governing structures in the majority-Serb northern Kosovo.
“I’m not sure they realize how soon they will be tested,” Reuters quotes a Western diplomat as saying. “The scrutiny will be intense.”
Given the troubles at home and mounting pressure from abroad, this year is shaping up to be anything but calm for Belgrade.
Picture of Tadic (right arm raised) at a campaign rally from Flickr
November 22nd, 2012
2 Comments at "Serbia: The Calm Before the Storm?"
I’m not sure if West realizes how long Serbia will reject any independence of Kosovo. The Western diplomat should know better before they start spitting insults on Serbia.
Kosovo is not a country and is the Serbian province of Kosovo and Metohija. After the NATO terrorist attack of 1999 which murdered thousands of civilians, UN Resolution 1244 maintained the territorial integrity of Serbia.
It is obvious that the EU and Euro experiment is coming to dramatic close, with all of western Europe and Greece massively endebted and effectively bankrupt; even the U.K., especially, since it cannot exploit nations any more.
It is not therefore worthwhile Serbia entering a bankrupt club. Millions of Serbs live outside Serbia and effectively prop up the economy.
Once the final Western financial and economic collapse is over, Serbs will return to Kosovo and Metohija en masse without Western hindrance. Serbia waited 500 years to rid themselves of the Turk, without help from outside and will do so again, when it is not worthwhile for Western countries to support Islamic narco and people traffiker terrorists in the Balkans …
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