The big news out of the Balkans this week is that Belgrade might ask Serbian voters to choose between recognizing independent Kosovo and the European Union. On 18 September, the Serbian daily Novosti reported that a referendum was on the table after German officials suggested that Belgrade must ultimately recognize Kosovo to join the union, despite statements to the contrary by EU Enlargement Commissioner Stefan Fuele earlier this month.
Novosti cited unnamed sources in the office of President Tomislav Nikolic, a Kosovo hawk along with much of Serbia’s new government. Nikolic insists he will give up the EU for Kosovo, which is still a Serbian province under the constitution. Prime Minister Ivica Dacic says Belgrade will never recognize Kosovo’s 2008 declaration of independence. In July, Vuk Jeremic, Serbia’s former foreign minister and the incoming president of the UN General Assembly, said Kosovo would join the UN “over my dead body.”
A well-connected source in Belgrade told me she doubted the report, saying it was probably just a “shot in the dark” by a journalist fishing for a story. She also said Belgrade might have leaked the information to gauge public opinion as it develops a long-promised “Kosovo policy” ahead of the resumption of EU-backed talks between Pristina and Belgrade this fall – negotiations that Brussels says are a pre-condition for Serbia’s European integration.
Bottom line, my source suggested, a referendum was unlikely. But then Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vucic told journalists that one is indeed on the table, although as a last resort.
My first response was that Brussels wouldn’t stand for this. In the interest of regional stability, it wants both Serbia and independent Kosovo in the EU one day and, I assume, would intervene against an “either-or” vote the same way it did last year in Bosnia, when the Republika Srpska (RS) was days away from holding a June referendum challenging the legitimacy of the Bosnian state and the peace process. For those unfamiliar with the latter case, Brussels sees a breakaway RS, one of the two semi-independent entities created by the Dayton Peace Accords, as a threat to the stability of Bosnia and the region. If the referendum went forward, Brussels told RS President Milorad Dodik, his personal assets would be frozen and he would not be able to travel in the EU. Then EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton traveled to Dodik’s office in Banja Luka, presumably to issue the threat in person. The referendum was canceled.
My second response was that, assuming Nikolic, Dacic, and the like are as hawkish as they claim, a referendum could backfire on them. Kosovo, Balkan analysts often say, is becoming less and less of an issue to the Serbian public. But after looking at some relevant polling data, I’m not so sure.
In 2011, 64 percent of Serbs agreed with the statement, “Kosovo has to remain part of Serbia,” according to the Gallup Balkan Monitor. This is down from over 70 percent in 2009 and 2010, but still high and just a few percentage points shy of the five-year average.
On the critical question of whether Belgrade should give up on Kosovo in exchange for EU membership, Gallup only has data from 2010, when 71 percent said it should not. Combined with polls showing a steady drop in public support for EU membership since 2010, Gallup’s numbers signal that Kosovo could indeed be a deal breaker.
Belgrade plans to roll out its anticipated “Kosovo policy” after next week’s UN General Assembly. I still doubt a referendum is in the cards. But I’ll update this post with any relevant developments in the coming days.
Picture of a March celebration in Belgrade after Serbia won coveted EU candidate status from Flickr
November 22nd, 2012
7 Comments at "Would Serbs Trade Kosovo for the EU?"
Government would.People,NEVER 95% of Serbs are against EU and Kosovo independance.
The matter of FACT is you western Bastards stole Kosovo from us.Not albanians,albanians are just your little pawns to help you along the way.
Where do you get your statistics from 64%???where?i dont know not one Serb who thinks that Kosovo is albanian.STOP bothering us with EU,WE DON’T WANT IN.What of that don’t you understand?We are FREE people.Not into your IMPERIALISTIC bastards.
my country, Kos_o_va. as i would pronounce it as an pure blooded Albanian. anyways. my country was and has been in the lands of Kosovo since the 14Th hundreds, since the Albanian population has increased,and Albanian people explored other lands and found Kosovo and settled. Now, the farthest back documentation my people have of Kosovo is since 1913. a year later, Serbia claims Kosovo is one of there lands since 1914. If so, why was it so easy for my people to settle in Kosovo if Serbia was ”In Fact” a leader of this land? i don’t know and i couldn’t say. but what i can say is. If in fact my country belonged to Serbia, why wouldn’t Serbia claim this land since day 1? and Serbia has no prove of this land belonging to them what so ever. and if so, id like to see it myself. Serbian people in fact are a departed population of Russia and have no relations with my countries behalf.
Dodik was being investigated by EU appointed judges for corruption. It was seen as a way to get rid of Dodik by EU. Dodik threatened to declare independence as if investiagtion continued. Catherine Ashton did showed up at Banja Luka and investigation was dropped the next day. Dodik then dropped the referendum.
Dodik was investigated by the EU appointed judges for corruption. Many saw this as way to control Dodik by EU. Dodik then threatened to hold independence referendum.
“Then, the next day, EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton showed up at Dodik’s office in Banja Luka, presumably to issue the threat in person. The referendum was canceled.”
Referendum was cancelled after EU and Bosnia dropped its corruption investigation.
Serbia already controls 2 territories in Bosnia and Kosovo making it the most important country in the region.
The EU stopped a democratically elected leader, Milorad Dodik, from having his constituents decide sovereignty in a free and fair election by threatening to seize his personal assets?
When do the Americans start bombing Brussels for repressing freedom and human rights?
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